Latest confirmed session
Historical probability research and live market context for NQ, ES, and GC futures traders.
Live ETF proxies.
Not financial advice.
Edge © 2026
Historical rate by regime, VIX, and day-of-week
ORB breakout direction, follow-through, extension
VIX-bucketed performance across all session types
Macro event impact on gap fill and session structure
Replayable archive of historical market sessions
Analog sessions matched by regime, gap, session type
EDGE prediction accuracy vs actual daily outcomes
Daily bias, gap fill odds, expected range before open
Four factors scored at 09:45 ET. When all four agree → HIGH conviction (~68% directional / +1.29R on NQ — preliminary, small out-of-sample sample). Otherwise the honest read is STAND DOWN. A bias, not a win rate.
The Pro Session Bias Map indicator draws this on your chart. Computed from real Globex data. Not financial advice.
The aligned break to watch after 09:30 ET: trade only the side that agrees with the overnight session's direction. Entry at the overnight extreme · stop = ¼ of the range · target 3R.
Computed each morning from real Globex data. Levels are CONTEXT — the naive overnight-break backtest was withdrawn 2026-06 (≈breakeven at realistic fills; see /research). Not financial advice.
NQ breaks its prior-day high/low in the overnight direction while ES does NOT confirm, and the NQ/ES/YM initial-balance triple agrees at 10:30 ET. Both legs traded at half size. Our single out-of-sample-validated lead — small sample, so it is being proven live, in the open.
BETA: positive every year and out-of-sample on 3y of Databento 1-min data with executable fills and slippage — but n=43 is a small sample, so we call it a lead, not an edge, until the public forward test confirms it (~20–30 trades holding ≥ +0.30R). Integrity note: our earlier overnight-break claim was withdrawn 2026-06 after a fill-model correction — the full record is on the research page.
NQ futures context before open — Thursday, September 10, 2026
EDGE is an independent institutional research terminal for futures traders.
Built specifically for NQ, ES, and GC — not options, not crypto, not prediction gurus. EDGE focuses on historical probabilities, session replay, and validation-driven accuracy. Every morning read is a function of data — not sentiment, not social media, not narrative.
Designed for daily decision support before the open. Gap fill odds, opening range behavior, volatility regime, macro event impact — structured and repeatable, session after session.
Probability, not prediction
EDGE shows historical base rates. What happened in similar conditions — not what will happen.
Replay + validation
Every session is replayable. Every EDGE prediction is tracked against actual outcomes.
Before the open
The daily read is designed to be consumed in 5 minutes — before 9:30 ET.
Pre-market context, probabilities, and macro setups delivered before the open. Gap fill odds, VIX regime, expected range — all in your inbox.