DAILY BIAS
BULLISH
CONF: 61%
GAP FILLS TODAY: 69%
ES — Intraday Structure
SESSION:
Pre-MarketRegular SessionAfter Hours
What we tested on ES — and what failed48 of 65 failed
LEADCrabel “stretch” open break+0.11Rn=719BETA15-min ORB + 'one and done / two and through' + 9/15/21/50 EMA stack+0.11Rn=795BETAMarket Profile 80% rule+0.24Rn=170BETASession Bias Map (4-factor conviction)+1.29Rn=60WITHDRAWNOvernight-range break + direction filter—n=519STAT ONLYGap fill—STAT ONLYGap fill, conditioned on gap size—n=712STAT ONLYThe fill artifact: levels the session can open beyond—n=501
Expectancy per trade, out-of-sample, after slippage. R = risk on the trade.full library →
NEWS & EVENTS
View Calendar →
TimeEventImpact
09:30JOLTS Job Openings
10:00ISM Services PMI
10:00Factory Orders m/m
14:30FOMC Member Speaks
16:00Fed Waller Speaks
SIMILAR HISTORICAL DAYS · ESSAMPLE · TOP 7
7 of 7 similar days closed higher (avg +45pts)
BULL100%
BEAR0%
AVG CHG+45
| DATE | SIMILARITY | GAP DIR | DAY TYPE | OUTCOME | NEXT DAY CHG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 94% | ↑ UP | Trend | Gap Filled | +43.00 |
| 2026-03-14 | 89% | ↑ UP | Trend | Trended Up | +51.00 |
| 2026-02-28 | 87% | ↑ UP | Rotation | Gap Filled | +39.00 |
| 2026-01-17 | 82% | ↑ UP | Range | Rotated | +44.00 |
| 2025-12-09 | 78% | ↑ UP | Trend | Trended Up | +52.00 |
| 2025-11-22 | 76% | ↑ UP | Rotation | Gap Filled | +38.00 |
| 2025-10-15 | 71% | ↑ UP | Trend | Trended Down | +46.00 |
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DAILY EDGE BRIEFING·ESFREE NEWSLETTER
BEEHIIVTODAY'S EDGE INCLUDES
NEUTRAL
- ▸Gap fill probability and regime context
- ▸EDGE score classification and factor breakdown
- ▸Opening range expectation for the session
- ▸Historical analog confidence read
- ▸Key macro events and volatility regime
- ▸Session playbook and trade windows
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Daily ES futures context. Tested numbers, sample sizes shown. Free.
EDGE VALIDATION·ESLAST 29 SESSIONS
▼ 1-STREAKOVERALL
45%
BIAS
45%
GAP FILL
79%
RANGE
51%
ACTIVETODAY'S PREDICTION
BIASSHORT (50%)
GAP FILL91%
RANGE7,543–7,691
| DATE | BIAS | CONF | GAP FILL | RANGE ACCURACY | OVERALL | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | SHORT✗ | 50% | ✓ | 70% | 35 | ACTIVE |
| 2026-11-11 | LONG✓ | 30% | ✗ | 42% | 71 | CONFIRMED |
| 2026-11-10 | LONG✗ | 49% | ✓ | 56% | 28 | FAILED |
| 2026-11-09 | SHORT✗ | 40% | ✓ | 26% | 13 | FAILED |
| 2026-11-06 | SHORT✗ | 72% | ✓ | 58% | 29 | FAILED |
| 2026-11-05 | LONG✗ | 43% | ✓ | 14% | 7 | FAILED |
| 2026-11-04 | LONG✓ | 50% | ✓ | 42% | 71 | CONFIRMED |
| 2026-11-03 | NEUT | 14% | ✓ | 81% | — | FAILED |
| 2026-11-02 | LONG✗ | 32% | ✓ | 82% | 41 | FAILED |
| 2026-10-30 | SHORT✓ | 56% | ✓ | 26% | 63 | CONFIRMED |
Rolling 30-session accuracy · Bias correct = close direction matches predictionTRADEIFY GRAND CUP