DAILY BIAS
BEARISH
CONF: 22%
GAP FILL: 92%
Edge Score™·ESHIGH EDGE
→63/100
Moderate edge. bias strength is a drag.
Contributing Factors
VOLATILITY REGIME48VIX 21.5 — elevated, wider stops required×12%
BIAS STRENGTH22Short bias — 22% confidence×22%
GAP ALIGNMENT68Gap DOWN 12pts — aligned with Short bias×12%
MACRO RISK95No scheduled events — pure price action session×14%
OR BEHAVIOR88OR break short — aligned with Short bias, continuation elevated×12%
HISTORICAL EXPECTANCY63Gap fill 92% · Analog consensus 50% bull (n=6)×16%
ANALOG CONFIDENCE876 analogs, best 88% similar (avg 85%)×12%
MORNING WORKFLOW·ES0/8 steps completed
1
Overnight Context
Opened below prior close by 12pts
Overnight inventory short
2
Macro RiskClean technical session
3
Daily BiasLow conviction
4
Gap StructureHigh fill probability — monitor prior close
5
PlaybookBest window: 09:45–11:00 ET
6
Similar Historical DaysMixed historical outcome
7
Trade WindowsTrend day — 09:30–10:15 ET + 14:00–15:00 ET
8
Session MonitoringModerate edge. bias strength is a drag.
TODAY'S PLAYBOOK·ES
AFTER HOURS·WEAK27%
PRIMARY SCENARIOBearish follow-through from yesterday's reversal. Early momentum key.
INVALIDATION
Acceptance above VWAP and OR high. Reclaim of 7,632.07 (expected range high) negates bearish structure.
BEST WINDOW
09:45–11:00 ET — opening drive + first OR retest window.
HIGHEST PROB SETUP
Gap Fill Fade — long back to prior close (92% hist. fill rate).
KEY LEVELS
PDH7,611.50PDL7,524.50PDC7,601.00ERH7,632.07ERL7,546.93ATR1485pts
VOLATILITY REGIME
ELEVATED — VIX 21.5. Expected range 85pts.
MACRO RISK
No scheduled events. Clean technical session.
CONDITIONS
▸VIX at 21.5 — elevated risk, manage size
▸Negative overnight inventory -12pts
▸No scheduled macro until tomorrow
▸Trend day classification — avoid fading moves
ES — Intraday Structure
SESSION:
Pre-MarketRegular SessionAfter Hours
WHY TODAY MATTERS·ES
HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE61%
MACRO
Clean technical sessions without macro events show higher setup completion rates.
Absence of scheduled events allows price to follow pure technical structure — OR breakouts succeed at +8% above average.
66%
based on historical no-event sessions
ANALOGS
Analog sessions split 50% bull / 50% bear — two-sided outcome risk.
Conflicting historical bias — setup quality depends on OR structure and VWAP relationship.
55%
based on 6 similar sessions
COMPARABLE SESSIONS
2024-08-022026-05-112025-08-01
Probability Breakdown — NQ
Gap Fill
71%
OR Break Higher
64%
OR Break Lower
36%
Hold Above VWAP
68%
Hold Below VWAP
32%
Based on 2,456 historical occurrences
Best Performing SetupsWin Rate
1.Gap Fill Fade71%
2.DRB + VWAP Hold68%
3.London Sweep + Revert65%
4.PDH Break + Retest62%
5.Lunch Break Fade59%
NEWS & EVENTS
View Calendar →
TimeEventImpact
09:30JOLTS Job Openings
10:00ISM Services PMI
10:00Factory Orders m/m
14:30FOMC Member Speaks
16:00Fed Waller Speaks
SIMILAR HISTORICAL DAYS · ESDB · TOP 6
6 analog sessions — mixed outcome (avg +7pts)
BULL50%
BEAR50%
AVG CHG+7
| DATE | SIMILARITY | GAP DIR | DAY TYPE | OUTCOME | NEXT DAY CHG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-02 | 88% | ↓ DN | ROTATION | Bear -158pts | -158.50 |
| 2026-05-11 | 87% | ↓ DN | REVERSAL | Flat -10pts | -10.25 |
| 2025-08-01 | 85% | ↓ DN | TREND | Bull +92pts | +91.50 |
| 2026-04-10 | 85% | ↓ DN | RANGE | Mild +68pts | +67.50 |
| 2026-04-28 | 85% | ↓ DN | ROTATION | Flat -3pts | -3.00 |
| 2026-02-23 | 82% | ↓ DN | TREND | Mild +52pts | +52.25 |
DAILY RESEARCH BRIEFING·ES·AFTER HOURS
SESSION CONTEXT
16:00+ ET · 16% elapsedSESSIONCash session closed. Reviewing day's structure for tomorrow's context.
OUTCOMECurrent session showing trend characteristics. Pullbacks buyable in bias direction.
TOMORROWMonitor overnight gap and futures direction before 09:30.
TODAY'S CONDITIONS
●Bearish bias (22% confidence)
●High VIX regime — VIX 21.51
●Gap DOWN 12pts — fill prob 92%
●No scheduled economic events
●Historical analogs: 50% bullish next day
KEY LEVELSPDH: 7,611.50 · PDL: 7,524.50 · PDC: 7,601.00 · ERH: 7,632.07 · ERL: 7,546.93
BIASBias is bearish with low confidence (22%). Prior reversal session — today may see follow-through on yesterday's pivot.
VOLATILITYVIX at 21.51 — elevated volatility regime. Expected range 85.13999999999942pts. Elevated volatility — expect wider intraday swings and potential ORB failures.
GAP SETUPOpened below prior close by 12pts (small gap). High probability of fill at 92%. Key level: prior close at 7,601 acts as magnet.
ORBORB break to the short (bearish). Aligned with daily bias — continuation probability is elevated. Trail stops above OR high.
MACRONo major scheduled economic events today. Data-driven sessions tend to be cleaner technically.
ANALOGS6 analog sessions found. 50% closed higher the following day (avg +7pts). Best analog: 2024-08-02 (88% similar) — outcome: Bear -158pts.
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DAILY EDGE BRIEFING·ESFREE NEWSLETTER
BEEHIIVTODAY'S EDGE INCLUDES
HIGH EDGEBEARISHGAP FILL 92%VIX ELEVATED
- ▸Gap fill probability and regime context
- ▸EDGE Score™ classification and factor breakdown
- ▸Opening range expectation for the session
- ▸Historical analog confidence read
- ▸Key macro events and volatility regime
- ▸Session playbook and trade windows
Get the EDGE
before the open.
Daily ES futures intelligence. Institutional grade. Free.
EDGE VALIDATION·ESLAST 30 SESSIONS
▼ 5-STREAKOVERALL
37%
BIAS
37%
GAP FILL
83%
RANGE
53%
| DATE | BIAS | CONF | GAP FILL | RANGE ACCURACY | OVERALL | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | SHORT✓ | 22% | ✗ | 16% | 58 | CONFIRMED |
| 2026-06-04 | SHORT✗ | 62% | ✓ | 49% | 25 | FAILED |
| 2026-06-03 | LONG✗ | 40% | ✓ | 31% | 16 | FAILED |
| 2026-06-02 | SHORT✗ | 21% | ✓ | 74% | 37 | FAILED |
| 2026-06-01 | SHORT✗ | 21% | ✓ | 73% | 37 | FAILED |
| 2026-05-29 | LONG✓ | 42% | ✓ | 50% | 75 | CONFIRMED |
| 2026-05-28 | LONG✓ | 34% | ✓ | 88% | 94 | CONFIRMED |
| 2026-05-27 | SHORT✗ | 24% | ✓ | 70% | 35 | FAILED |
| 2026-05-26 | LONG✓ | 56% | ✗ | 47% | 74 | CONFIRMED |
| 2026-05-22 | LONG✓ | 37% | ✗ | 43% | 72 | CONFIRMED |
Rolling 30-session accuracy · Bias correct = close direction matches predictionTRADEIFY GRAND CUP
SOCIAL EXPORT·ESX / TWITTER
2026-06-05 · 8:30 AM ETES · Jun 5, 2026 · PRE-MARKET EDGE Score: 63/100 — HIGH EDGE Bias: BEARISH (22% confidence) VIX: 21.5 [ELEVATED] Gap DOWN 12pts from prior close. Gap fill probability: 92% Expected range: 7,547–7,632 OR expectation: Breakout continuation No macro events scheduled. Best analog: 2024-08-02 · 6 sessions, consensus mixed (50%). #ES #FuturesTrading #EDGE
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