Research
Honest futures research for NQ, ES, and GC. Every edge here was tested on 3 years of real 1-minute data with an out-of-sample split and modeled costs — and we publish the setups that failed, not just the ones that worked.
Measure the 10-day average 'stretch' (how far the open sits from the nearest extreme). Place a buy stop that far above the open and a sell stop that far below it. The first side hit takes the trade, the opposite level is the stop, and the position is held to the close.
⚠ SIZING — the number nobody publishes: A positive edge can still fail a prop evaluation. At $250 risk/trade the 14.5R drawdown is ≈$3,625 — it BREACHES a $2,000 trailing-drawdown account. Tradeable size is ≈$100–125/trade, or a filtered subset that trades less often.
BETA — one untuned parameterization from a 1990 book, positive every year on NQ and robust to 4× our normal slippage, but it has not yet been proven forward in the open. We publish it as a lead, not a validated edge, and the forward ledger below decides which it becomes. 3-year Databento 1-min backtest · executable fills · net of slippage (2023–2026).
Browse the full research library — 44 strategies with their out-of-sample and per-year columns →
The pattern: on index futures the sweep is a continuation signal, not a reversal — every "fade the sweep" setup loses out-of-sample, and continuation only pays at major once-a-day levels. When our OWN numbers fail a re-test, we withdraw them publicly (⚠) — same standard we apply to everyone else. The one live lead (below) is in an open forward test. See the gap-fill breakdown →
Combine four factors knowable by 09:45 — overnight direction, gap, prior-day body, ORB15. When all four agree (~1 in 3 days), the day closed that way ~68% of the time and the continuation trade made +1.29R (NQ). Below that, direction is a coin-flip — so the read is STAND DOWN. Honest caveat: this is preliminary — a small out-of-sample sample (n≈60, ±~12pp), a conviction/stand-down filter, not yet a graduated edge. A directional bias, not a win rate. The Session Bias Map indicator →
Our single out-of-sample-validated lead — NQ prior-day-H/L break that diverges from ES, confirmed by a NQ/ES/YM initial-balance triple — traded live, in the open, since 2026-06-16. Backtest: +0.62R/trade, 65% win, PF 3.62, max-DD 2.4R, ~14 signals/yr. Confirmation bar: ~20–30 forward trades holding ≥ +0.30R before we call it validated. If it fades here, we publish that too.
GC (traded as MGC, $10/pt) · 5-minute · 08:20–13:30 ET (14:20–19:30 SAST). Reference: Overnight range 18:00 → 08:20 ET. 1. First bar to trade beyond the overnight range AND close back inside on the same bar, closing against the trade direction. 2. A later bar closes beyond that rejection bar's far extreme (within 12 bars). 3. LIMIT at the rejection bar's midpoint, working from the confirmation bar (no fill within 12 bars = no trade). Low swept → LONG · high swept → SHORT. 30-point target, 30-point stop, Flat at 13:30 ET.
Why this is a candidate, not an edge. We examined roughly 350 combinations of level, entry model, target and stop to find it — with that many cells a good-looking backtest is expected from noise alone, so the backtest is not the evidence; this ledger is. Two things we corrected while building it, both published: (1)we first described this as a “breaker block”, but our code never implemented one — every qualifying day was a same-bar sweep-and-reclaim, so it is named for what it is; (2) an earlier version entered at the reclaim close, which used the confirmation to select the day and then entered before it — lookahead. That version is void. Entering at the confirmation bar at market loses (−$26/trade); only the limit retest survives. Expect ~28 trades a year: roughly $532 a year on a single MGC contract. Full record →
No signals yet. The rule fires roughly 28 times a year, so the first entries may take a couple of weeks. Every one will appear here — including the losers and the days the limit never filled.
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DAILY COVERAGE
- Daily gap fill probability
- Regime classification
- Volatility context
- Opening range expectation
- Session replay breakdowns
- Macro event setups
- Historical analog analysis
- EDGE score daily read
The daily pre-open briefing publishes via the newsletter; the searchable archive lands here once the Beehiiv integration is wired. Until then, the live read is on the NQ dashboard, and the validated research above is the real, out-of-sample work. We'd rather show you nothing than invent sample articles.
Every stat above is computed from real historical price data with an out-of-sample split — and we publish the setups that fail, not just the ones that work. Market context, not trading advice.