E
EdgeTape
NQESGC
GC Q6·GOLD FUTURES
3,880.20-2.85%
London Session Opening Range
DAILY BIAS
BEARISH
CONF: 49%
GAP FILLS TODAY: 76% · small gap · n=236
Edge Score™·GCHIGH EDGE
→71/100
Strong conditions. macro risk adds conviction.
Contributing Factors
VOLATILITY REGIME
72VIX 18.7 — low volatility, favorable structure×12%
BIAS STRENGTH
49Short bias — 49% confidence×22%
GAP ALIGNMENT
67Gap DOWN 7pts — aligned with Short bias×12%
MACRO RISK
95No scheduled events — pure price action session×14%
OR BEHAVIOR
88OR break short — aligned with Short bias, continuation elevated×12%
HISTORICAL EXPECTANCY
53Gap fill 76% · Analog consensus 33% bull (n=6)×16%
ANALOG CONFIDENCE
946 analogs, best 95% similar (avg 93%)×12%
MORNING WORKFLOW·GC0/8 steps completed
0%
1
Overnight Context
▲

Opened below prior close by 7pts

Overnight inventory short
2
Macro RiskClean technical session
▼
3
Daily BiasLow conviction
▼
4
Gap StructureHigh fill probability — monitor prior close
▼
5
PlaybookBest window: 09:30–10:15 ET opening drive, then 14:00–15:00 ET power hour continuation.
▼
6
Similar Historical DaysHistorical bias bearish
▼
7
Trade WindowsTrend day — 09:30–10:15 ET + 14:00–15:00 ET
▼
8
Session MonitoringStrong conditions. macro risk adds conviction.
▼
TODAY'S PLAYBOOK·GC
AFTER HOURS·MOD59%
PRIMARY SCENARIOBearish follow-through from yesterday's reversal. Early momentum key.
INVALIDATION
Acceptance above VWAP and OR high. Reclaim of 4,043.02 (expected range high) negates bearish structure.
BEST WINDOW
09:30–10:15 ET opening drive, then 14:00–15:00 ET power hour continuation.
HIGHEST PROB SETUP
OR Breakout SHORT + VWAP continuation — bias-aligned, elevated follow-through.
KEY LEVELS
PDH4,074.70PDL3,989.60PDC4,000.50ERH4,043.02ERL3,944.98ATR1498pts
VOLATILITY REGIME
LOW — VIX 18.7. Expected range 98pts. Normal size.
MACRO RISK
No scheduled events. Clean technical session.
CONDITIONS
▸VIX below 20 (18.7) — favorable conditions
▸Overnight inventory near flat — no directional overhang
▸No scheduled macro until tomorrow
▸Trend day classification — avoid fading moves
GC — Intraday Structure
SESSION:
WHY TODAY MATTERS·GC
HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE61%
MACRO

Clean technical sessions without macro events show higher setup completion rates.

Absence of scheduled events allows price to follow pure technical structure — OR breakouts succeed at +8% above average.

66%
based on historical no-event sessions
ANALOGS

Analog sessions split 33% bull / 67% bear — two-sided outcome risk.

Conflicting historical bias — setup quality depends on OR structure and VWAP relationship.

55%
based on 6 similar sessions
COMPARABLE SESSIONS
2025-11-032026-10-232026-09-10
What we tested on GC — and what failed29 of 44 failed
LEADCrabel “stretch” open break+0.11Rn=719BETAGold: overnight rejection wick + confirmation + retest—n=85BETAGold: Asia-range OCO breakout at the London open, 0.3–1.6% range filter, 0.6% stop cap, 2.5R+0.11Rn=637STAT ONLYGap fill, conditioned on gap size—n=712STAT ONLYGold: prior-day H/L break, fixed 20-point target—n=491STAT ONLYThe fill artifact: levels the session can open beyond—n=501STAT ONLYGold: where the bull run actually accrued—n=764STAT ONLY“Probable bands” — is the 80% band hit 80% of the time?—
Expectancy per trade, out-of-sample, after slippage. R = risk on the trade.full library →
NEWS & EVENTS
View Calendar →
TimeEventImpact
09:30JOLTS Job Openings
10:00ISM Services PMI
10:00Factory Orders m/m
14:30FOMC Member Speaks
16:00Fed Waller Speaks
SIMILAR HISTORICAL DAYS · GCDB · TOP 6
4 of 6 similar days closed lower (avg -30pts)
BULL33%
BEAR67%
AVG CHG-30
DATESIMILARITYGAP DIRDAY TYPEOUTCOMENEXT DAY CHG
2025-11-03
95%
↓ DNRANGEMild -53pts-52.60
2026-10-23
95%
↓ DNROTATIONMild +31pts+30.50
2026-09-10
93%
↓ DNRANGEFlat +2pts+1.60
2026-10-28
93%
↓ DNRANGEMild -20pts-20.20
2026-09-21
91%
↓ DNROTATIONFlat -7pts-7.50
2026-08-27
90%
↓ DNRANGEBear -134pts-134.10
DAILY RESEARCH BRIEFING·GC·AFTER HOURS
SESSION CONTEXT
16:00+ ET · 18% elapsed
SESSIONCash session closed. Reviewing day's structure for tomorrow's context.
OUTCOMECurrent session showing trend characteristics. Pullbacks buyable in bias direction.
TOMORROWMonitor overnight gap and futures direction before 09:30.
TODAY'S CONDITIONS
●Bearish bias (49% confidence)
●Low VIX regime — VIX 18.70
●Gap DOWN 7pts — fill prob 76%
●No scheduled economic events
●Historical analogs: 33% bullish next day
KEY LEVELSPDH: 4,074.70 · PDL: 3,989.60 · PDC: 4,000.50 · ERH: 4,043.02 · ERL: 3,944.98
BIASBias is bearish with low confidence (49%). Prior reversal session — today may see follow-through on yesterday's pivot.
VOLATILITYVIX at 18.70 — low volatility regime. Expected range 98.03999999999996pts. Low VIX historically supports gap fills and trend continuation.
GAP SETUPOpened below prior close by 7pts (small gap). High probability of fill at 76%. Key level: prior close at 4,000.5 acts as magnet.
ORBORB break to the short (bearish). Aligned with daily bias — continuation probability is elevated. Trail stops above OR high.
MACRONo major scheduled economic events today. Data-driven sessions tend to be cleaner technically.
ANALOGS6 analog sessions found. 33% closed higher the following day (avg -30pts). Best analog: 2026-10-23 (95% similar) — outcome: Mild +31pts.
DAILY EDGE BRIEFING·GCFREE NEWSLETTER
BEEHIIV
TODAY'S EDGE INCLUDES
HIGH EDGEBEARISHGAP FILL 76%VIX LOW
  • ▸Gap fill probability and regime context
  • ▸EDGE score classification and factor breakdown
  • ▸Opening range expectation for the session
  • ▸Historical analog confidence read
  • ▸Key macro events and volatility regime
  • ▸Session playbook and trade windows

Get the EDGE
before the open.

Daily GC futures context. Tested numbers, sample sizes shown. Free.

No spam. No win-rate claims. Unsubscribe anytime.

EDGE VALIDATION·GCLAST 29 SESSIONS
▼ 2-STREAK
OVERALL
31%
BIAS
31%
GAP FILL
86%
RANGE
55%
ACTIVETODAY'S PREDICTION
BIASSHORT (49%)
GAP FILL76%
RANGE3,945–4,043
DATEBIASCONFGAP FILLRANGE ACCURACYOVERALLSTATUS
2026-11-12SHORT✓49%✓33%67ACTIVE
2026-11-11LONG✗24%✓77%39FAILED
2026-11-10LONG✗56%✗31%16FAILED
2026-11-09SHORT✗21%✓44%22FAILED
2026-11-06SHORT✓45%✓57%79CONFIRMED
2026-11-05LONG✓38%✓41%71CONFIRMED
2026-11-04LONG✓20%✓29%65CONFIRMED
2026-11-03SHORT✓19%✓63%82CONFIRMED
2026-11-02SHORT✗51%✓31%16FAILED
2026-10-30NEUT12%✓22%—FAILED
Rolling 30-session accuracy · Bias correct = close direction matches predictionTRADEIFY GRAND CUP
SOCIAL EXPORT·GCX / TWITTER
2026-11-12 · 8:30 AM ET
GC · Nov 12, 2026 · PRE-MARKET
EDGE Score: 71/100 — HIGH EDGE
Bias: BEARISH (49% confidence)
VIX: 18.7 [LOW]
Gap DOWN 7pts from prior close.
Gap fill probability: 76%
Expected range: 3,945–4,043
OR expectation: Breakout continuation
No macro events scheduled.
Best analog: 2025-11-03 · 6 sessions, consensus bearish (33%).
#GC #FuturesTrading #EDGE
348 / 280
Single tweet · post at 8:30 AM ET