A catalogue where the entries have verdicts.
104 strategies run on 3 years of real 1-minute futures data with an out-of-sample split, executable fills and slippage charged — the same standard applied to everyone else's strategies and to our own. Most of them lose. Two we published and then withdrew when a re-test killed them. Underneath those sit 5,810 strategies imported from a public catalogue and labelled UNTESTED, because that is what they are.
Note the two columns most strategy libraries leave out: EXP R and OOS. A number that only exists in the sample it was found in is not a result. Where we never measured something it shows a dash rather than a guess.
We test families against a pre-registered spec, not individual scripts. Running 5,810 backtests and publishing the winners would find winners whether or not any edge existed — that is what a search over thousands of variants does, and it is the mistake this whole site exists to document. So a script's verdict is its family's verdict unless it was tested by name, and an imported script with no family verdict yet reads UNTESTED rather than “promising”. The 27 families, and how each boundary was drawn →
We link, we don't host: imported entries store metadata and a link to the source, never the source code — those scripts carry mixed and mostly unstated licences. We also drop the source catalogue's own “priority score”, its auto-generated summaries and its default backtest stub, none of which carry any information about whether a strategy makes money.
Full verdict split of our 104: 1 lead · 10 beta · 2 withdrawn · 21 stat only · 69 rejected · 1 untestable. STAT-ONLY means the statistic is real and there is no tradeable expression of it; UNTESTABLE means it could not be mechanized as taught, so it is documented rather than dismissed.
| STRATEGY | FAMILY | SCOPE | STATUS | VERDICT | EXP R | OOS | LINK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸Crabel “stretch” open breakEDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · GC · RTH open → close | TESTED | LEAD | +0.114 | +0.086 | §47-C, §48 |
| ▸Cross-asset AND-gateEDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · RTH · resolves by 10:30 ET | TESTED | BETA | +0.348 | +0.353 | §26, §33, §59c, §59d |
| ▸Gold: overnight rejection wick + confirmation + retestEDGETAPE | Liquidity sweeps & SMC/ICT entry models | GC · 08:20–13:30 ET · 5-min | TESTED | BETA | — | — | §57 / §57b |
| ▸ICT Silver Bullet — the as-taught version (15m levels + 15m bias)EDGETAPE | Liquidity sweeps & SMC/ICT entry models | NQ · London 03:00–04:00 · NY-AM 10:00–11:00 … | TESTED | BETA | +0.198 | +0.136 | §63 |
| ▸AND-gate, exited at the 17:00 Globex closeEDGETAPE | Holding period / overnight & multi-day holds | NQ · RTH entry · exit 17:00 ET instead of 16… | TESTED | BETA | +0.390 | +0.330 | §60 |
| ▸Crabel stretch + cross-index DIVERGENCEEDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · RTH · one trade/day | TESTED | BETA | +0.297 | +0.351 | §55, §59c |
| ▸Opening-drive continuation (enter the first 15-minute bar's direction at 09:45)EDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · RTH · enter 09:45 ET · 2R target · flat… | TESTED | BETA | +0.117 | +0.101 | §73b |
| ▸15-min ORB + 'one and done / two and through' + 9/15/21/50 EMA stackEDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · RTH · entries to 12:00 ET · flat 1… | TESTED | BETA | +0.106 | +0.049 | §75 |
| ▸Market Profile 80% ruleEDGETAPE | Volume & flow indicators | NQ · ES · RTH · 30-min periods | TESTED | BETA | +0.244 | +0.189 | §86 |
| ▸Gold: Asia-range OCO breakout at the London open, 0.3–1.6% range filter, 0.6% stop cap, 2.5REDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | GC · Asia 20:00–00:00 ET range · OCO at 03:0… | TESTED | BETA | +0.109 | +0.118 | §109, §110 |
| ▸Session Bias Map (4-factor conviction)EDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · scored 09:45 ET | TESTED | BETA | +1.290 | — | session-bias-map-guide |
| ▸Prior-day H/L break + cross-asset confirmEDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · RTH | TESTED | WITHDRAWN | -0.430 | -0.697 | §31, §59c |
| ▸Overnight-range break + direction filterEDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · after 09:30 ET | TESTED | WITHDRAWN | — | — | §21, live-site-impact |
| ▸Gap fillEDGETAPE | Gap behaviour | NQ · ES · RTH | TESTED | STAT ONLY | — | — | orb-databento-findings |
| ▸Gap fill, conditioned on gap sizeEDGETAPE | Gap behaviour | NQ · ES · GC · RTH · same-day fill | TESTED | STAT ONLY | — | — | §52 |
| ▸Gold: prior-day H/L break, fixed 20-point targetEDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | GC · 08:20–13:30 ET · 5-min | TESTED | STAT ONLY | — | — | §56 |
| ▸The fill artifact: levels the session can open beyondEDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · GC · methodology | TESTED | STAT ONLY | — | — | §55 |
| ▸Gold: where the bull run actually accruedEDGETAPE | Holding period / overnight & multi-day holds | GC · 18:00→17:00 ET by session | TESTED | STAT ONLY | — | — | §53-J |
| ▸Asia→London range breakEDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · 01:00–06:00 ET | TESTED | STAT ONLY | — | — | §39, §40, §41 |
| ▸Minute aggressor delta (order flow) as a predictorEDGETAPE | Order flow | NQ · 4 sessions, 2026-06-01 → 06-04 (Databen… | TESTED | STAT ONLY | — | — | §95 |
| ▸NQStats AM TBR (return to the 08:00 price)EDGETAPE | Statistical extremes (fade a statistic, not a level) | NQ · ES · 08:00–12:00 ET | TESTED | STAT ONLY | -0.001 | -0.003 | §83 |
| ▸Afternoon IB by rejection (14:00–15:00 IB)EDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · 15:00–16:00 ET | TESTED | STAT ONLY | -0.044 | -0.004 | §84 |
| ▸Two-checkpoint daily bias (09:45 colour + 12:00 vs the open)EDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · enter 12:00 · hold to 16:00 ET | TESTED | STAT ONLY | +13.310 | +2.511 | §88 |
| ▸New-week opening gap 50% filled by Monday (87%)EDGETAPE | Gap behaviour | NQ · Sunday 18:00 → Monday 16:00 | TESTED | STAT ONLY | +0.334 | — | §99 |
| ▸“Probable bands” — is the 80% band hit 80% of the time?EDGETAPE | Statistical extremes (fade a statistic, not a level) | NQ · ES · GC · RTH open→16:00 · →11:30 · Glo… | TESTED | STAT ONLY | — | — | §100 |
| ▸Gold reclaim × the dollar (6E) at the entry minuteEDGETAPE | Macro & cross-asset regime | GC · 08:20–13:30 ET · gold session clock 18:… | TESTED | STAT ONLY | — | — | §101 |
| ▸CPI / NFP 08:30 — first-minute direction, continuation vs reversalEDGETAPE | Event-driven | NQ · ES · GC · 08:30 → +5/+15/+30/+60 min | TESTED | STAT ONLY | — | — | §102 |
| ▸Turn-of-month (T-3 … T+3) daily returnsEDGETAPE | Calendar & seasonality | NQ · ES · GC · RTH close-to-close, last trad… | TESTED | STAT ONLY | — | — | §102 |
| ▸Day of week — RTH 09:30→16:00 returnEDGETAPE | Calendar & seasonality | NQ · ES · GC · RTH | TESTED | STAT ONLY | — | — | §102 |
| ▸C2 sweep-and-reclaim: CISD-confirmation and projection-reach base rates by reclaim strengthEDGETAPE | Liquidity sweeps & SMC/ICT entry models | NQ · 15m / 1H / 4H HTF | TESTED | STAT ONLY | — | — | §105 |
| ▸Red Asia + 02:00 below the 18:00 open → London takes the Asia low firstEDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · GC · YM · Asia 18:00–02:00 → Londo… | TESTED | STAT ONLY | -0.020 | -0.060 | §107 |
| ▸HOD/LOD on opposite sides of noon; AM-low/PM-high → up closeEDGETAPE | Calendar & seasonality | NQ · ES · GC · YM · RTH | TESTED | STAT ONLY | — | — | §107 |
| ▸Gold: the 02:00–03:00 ET hour (the NY-Fed drift window)EDGETAPE | Calendar & seasonality | GC · 02:00–03:00 ET | TESTED | STAT ONLY | — | — | §107 |
| ▸“Pre-London swept the Asia high → London retakes it” (77.16%)EDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · 02:00–05:00 ET | TESTED | STAT ONLY | — | — | §58 |
| ▸NQ↔ES divergence break (standalone)EDGETAPE | Cross-asset confirmation & divergence | NQ · RTH | TESTED | REJECTED | +0.047 | +0.126 | §33, §59c |
| ▸FVG / IFVG / CISD entries after a liquidity sweepEDGETAPE | Liquidity sweeps & SMC/ICT entry models | GC · 5-min · all sessions tested | TESTED | REJECTED | — | — | §57 |
| ▸ICT Silver Bullet — the “25,000 backtests” survivorEDGETAPE | Liquidity sweeps & SMC/ICT entry models | NQ · London 03:00–04:00 · NY-AM 10:00–11:00 … | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.047 | -0.067 | §63 |
| ▸Cross-index CONFIRMATION at a level ("confluence")EDGETAPE | Cross-asset confirmation & divergence | NQ · ES · RTH | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.471 | -0.579 | §55, §59c |
| ▸Gold: Asian-range breakout at LondonEDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | GC · 02:00–08:20 ET | TESTED | REJECTED | +0.027 | +0.010 | §53-B |
| ▸Gold: London Judas swing (Asian-range sweep → reverse)EDGETAPE | Liquidity sweeps & SMC/ICT entry models | GC · 02:00–08:20 ET | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.423 | -0.357 | §53-B |
| ▸Gold: “87%” overnight-range breakEDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | GC · 08:20–13:30 ET | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.072 | -0.069 | §53-C |
| ▸Gold: IB single-break retrace entry (“79%”)EDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | GC · 10:30–13:30 ET | TESTED | REJECTED | +0.051 | +0.112 | §53-D |
| ▸Gold: London fix · 10am reversal · 08:30 candleEDGETAPE | Calendar & seasonality | GC · AM/PM fix, 10:00, 08:30 ET | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.248 | -0.045 | §53-E/F/G |
| ▸RTH gap 70.5% break → full fillEDGETAPE | Gap behaviour | ES · NQ · RTH | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.038 | -0.109 | §49, §50 |
| ▸Turtle Soup — fade the prior-day sweepEDGETAPE | Liquidity sweeps & SMC/ICT entry models | NQ · ES · RTH | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.356 | -0.145 | §37 |
| ▸ICT Judas Swing — fade the London sweepEDGETAPE | Liquidity sweeps & SMC/ICT entry models | NQ · 02:00–05:00 ET | TESTED | REJECTED | — | -0.340 | orb-databento-findings |
| ▸AM Silver Bullet — fade the 9am sweepEDGETAPE | Liquidity sweeps & SMC/ICT entry models | NQ · 10:00–11:00 ET | TESTED | REJECTED | — | — | orb-databento-findings |
| ▸Sweep → FVG 1:1 modelEDGETAPE | Liquidity sweeps & SMC/ICT entry models | NQ · ES · RTH | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.175 | — | §29 |
| ▸15m FVG draw → 1m iFVG limit, 1:1 (reel version)EDGETAPE | Liquidity sweeps & SMC/ICT entry models | NQ · ES · GC · RTH 09:35–15:30 | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.221 | -0.211 | §79 |
| ▸HTF breaker → unfilled 15m FVG target → 1m breaker entry (Amas continuation)EDGETAPE | Liquidity sweeps & SMC/ICT entry models | NQ · ES · GC · entries 09:35–15:30 · structu… | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.178 | -0.230 | §81 |
| ▸Fair-value-gap retest continuationEDGETAPE | Liquidity sweeps & SMC/ICT entry models | ES · NQ · RTH · 5-min | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.407 | -0.484 | §49 |
| ▸CISD / “order block” as a mechanical entryEDGETAPE | Liquidity sweeps & SMC/ICT entry models | NQ · ES · RTH | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.280 | — | orb-databento-findings |
| ▸TTrades “Fractal Model”EDGETAPE | Liquidity sweeps & SMC/ICT entry models | NQ · hourly + daily HTF | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.144 | -0.106 | §36 |
| ▸“ORB 1:1” — fade the side that formed firstEDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · 09:30–09:45 ET | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.297 | -0.268 | §47-A |
| ▸Volume-confluence ORB breakoutEDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · 09:30–09:45 ET | TESTED | REJECTED | +0.194 | -0.166 | §47-B |
| ▸AI-searched ORB window (05:30–05:45)EDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · 05:30–05:45 ET | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.191 | — | §51 |
| ▸Initial Balance 50 (“83% strategy”)EDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · 09:30–10:30 ET | TESTED | REJECTED | — | — | orb-databento-findings |
| ▸Naive opening-range / IB breakEDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · 09:30 ET | TESTED | REJECTED | +0.089 | — | orb-databento-findings |
| ▸“Magic Hours” hourly mean reversionEDGETAPE | Calendar & seasonality | NQ · ES · GC · all hours | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.069 | +0.012 | §43 |
| ▸NY AM/PM “two trades a day” session modelEDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · NY AM + NY PM | TESTED | REJECTED | — | — | §30, §31 |
| ▸London session breaks (all variants)EDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · London | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.070 | — | §32, §38–§41 |
| ▸2×200EMA + VWAP pullback scalpEDGETAPE | Moving-average trend & crossover | NQ · ES · after 10:00 ET | TESTED | REJECTED | +0.540 | — | §45, §46 |
| ▸WillyAlgo “Self-Aware Trend System”EDGETAPE | Moving-average trend & crossover | NQ · ES · intraday | TESTED | REJECTED | — | — | §28 |
| ▸The Overnight Drift (European-open window)EDGETAPE | Holding period / overnight & multi-day holds | ES · NQ · 02:00–03:30 ET | TESTED | REJECTED | — | — | §44 |
| ▸NQ/ES spread mean reversionEDGETAPE | Relative value, spreads & hedged pairs | NQ · ES · intraday | TESTED | REJECTED | — | — | §24 |
| ▸Expansion-regime breakout (“20–30% win / ~8RR”)NOMINATED | Volatility regime as the trade | NQ · ES · GC · RTH · IB break after 10:30 or… | TESTED | REJECTED | +0.014 | +0.004 | §64 |
| ▸NR-day expansion (narrow range → next-day range break)EDGETAPE | Volatility regime as the trade | NQ · ES · GC · RTH · PDH/PDL break from 09:3… | TESTED | REJECTED | +0.048 | -0.061 | §64 |
| ▸IB extension continuation (break the IB, target the extension)EDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · GC · RTH · first close beyond the … | TESTED | REJECTED | +0.010 | +0.020 | §73 |
| ▸VWAP band reversion (fade ±2σ back to VWAP)EDGETAPE | VWAP-anchored | NQ · ES · GC · RTH · first band touch from 1… | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.139 | +0.095 | §73 |
| ▸POC magnet (prior-day POC as the 10:30 target)EDGETAPE | Volume & flow indicators | NQ · ES · GC · RTH · decided at 10:30 ET · f… | TESTED | REJECTED | +0.035 | -0.071 | §73 |
| ▸Pre-market range as levels (08:00–09:30 high / low / base / mid)EDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · GC · RTH · first touch from 09:30 … | TESTED | REJECTED | — | — | §73b |
| ▸Opening drive → first FVG pullbackEDGETAPE | Liquidity sweeps & SMC/ICT entry models | NQ · ES · GC · RTH · drive confirmed by 10:3… | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.004 | -0.181 | §73b |
| ▸Opening drive → 50% retracement limitEDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · GC · RTH · drive confirmed by 10:3… | TESTED | REJECTED | +0.049 | -0.090 | §73b |
| ▸IB failure → 25% back in (edgeful 62% / 83%)EDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · GC · RTH · after 10:30 ET · flat 1… | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.118 | +0.009 | §74 |
| ▸10 AM open filter as a base hit (funded.now lesson)EDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · RTH · from 10:00 ET · flat 16:00 | TESTED | REJECTED | — | — | §76 |
| ▸09:45 first-bar direction as base hits (fixed point targets)EDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · RTH · enter 09:45 ET · flat 16:00 | TESTED | REJECTED | — | — | §77 |
| ▸IB-mid rejection and IB failure → mid (5-min candles)EDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · RTH · entries 10:30–14:00 ET · fla… | TESTED | REJECTED | +0.112 | +0.384 | §78 |
| ▸New York VWAP bounce (new extreme → first VWAP retest)EDGETAPE | VWAP-anchored | NQ · ES · RTH · 2-min · entries 09:45–15:30 … | TESTED | REJECTED | +0.033 | — | §80 |
| ▸Fair Pricing Theory (09:30 open as fair price)EDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · RTH · entries 09:40–11:00 ET | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.123 | -0.173 | §82 |
| ▸IB75 'ending zone'EDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · RTH · 10:30–15:30 ET | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.184 | -0.365 | §85 |
| ▸Drift VWAP pullback ('prop firm golden ticket')EDGETAPE | VWAP-anchored | NQ · RTH · 5-min · 10:30–15:30 ET · flat 15:… | TESTED | REJECTED | +0.003 | +0.003 | §87 |
| ▸Candle Range Theory on CME 4H candles (incl. the 10:00 'Lab model' anchor)EDGETAPE | Liquidity sweeps & SMC/ICT entry models | NQ · ES · GC · 4H candles 02–06 / 06–10 / 10… | TESTED | REJECTED | +0.048 | +0.089 | §89 |
| ▸NDOG / NWOG opening gaps and their 50% (CE)EDGETAPE | Gap behaviour | NQ · ES · GC · 17:00→18:00 daily gap · Fri→S… | TESTED | REJECTED | — | — | §90 |
| ▸Engulfing candle, two targetsEDGETAPE | Unclassified | NQ · ES · RTH · 09:30–15:30 ET | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.049 | -0.041 | §91 |
| ▸RSI(2) daily swing (long only)EDGETAPE | Statistical extremes (fade a statistic, not a level) | NQ · ES · GC · daily Globex bars · hold days | TESTED | REJECTED | +0.063 | +0.003 | §92 |
| ▸Small-gap fill (0.05–0.2%)EDGETAPE | Gap behaviour | ES · NQ · RTH · enter 09:35 · flat 16:00 | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.096 | -0.078 | §93 |
| ▸ORB formation order → opposite-side break (edgeful's 76.79%)EDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · RTH · ORB 09:30–09:45 · enter 09:45 · f… | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.049 | -0.076 | §98 |
| ▸5m close outside the 15-min OR → retest → 50% extension (JKB)EDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · RTH · OR 09:30–09:45 · first 5m close o… | TESTED | REJECTED | +0.008 | — | §99 |
| ▸Gap < 0.4% → full fill at 09:30, stop 0.5% (edgeful AI thread)EDGETAPE | Gap behaviour | NQ · RTH · enter 09:30 · flat 16:00 | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.033 | — | §99 |
| ▸Fade the 20% / 10% probable band back to the anchorEDGETAPE | Statistical extremes (fade a statistic, not a level) | NQ · ES · GC · RTH→16:00 · RTH→11:30 · Globe… | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.033 | +0.000 | §100 |
| ▸First-15-minute direction with the 50% band as the targetEDGETAPE | Statistical extremes (fade a statistic, not a level) | NQ · ES · GC · RTH · enter 09:45 · flat 16:0… | TESTED | REJECTED | +0.024 | -0.079 | §100 |
| ▸Market intraday momentum — the day's direction into the last 30 minEDGETAPE | The closing auction | NQ · ES · GC · RTH · enter 15:30 · exit 16:0… | TESTED | REJECTED | — | — | §102 |
| ▸Pre-FOMC announcement drift (and post-FOMC 14:00→16:00)EDGETAPE | Event-driven | NQ · ES · GC · 14:00 day-before → 14:00 anno… | TESTED | REJECTED | — | — | §102 |
| ▸Third-Friday (opex) overnight spike and morning reversalEDGETAPE | Calendar & seasonality | NQ · ES · Thu 16:00 → Fri 09:30; Fri 09:30 →… | TESTED | REJECTED | — | — | §102 |
| ▸Gold: the 4 minutes after the London PM fix startsEDGETAPE | Event-driven | GC · 15:00 London (DST-correct) → +4 min | TESTED | REJECTED | — | — | §102 |
| ▸Fade the day in the last half-hour (the reversed intraday momentum)EDGETAPE | The closing auction | NQ · ES · RTH · enter 15:30 · exit 16:00 | TESTED | REJECTED | — | — | §103 |
| ▸Mesfin 'RTH Confluence Signal' — GMM regime × Markov gate × volume z, pullback-limit longEDGETAPE | AI / ML | NQ · RTH 5-min bars · bar-13 exit | TESTED | REJECTED | — | — | §104 |
| ▸Mesfin 'London Session Signal B' — GMM R0→R2 transition, 15-min bars 03:00–08:30EDGETAPE | AI / ML | NQ · London 03:00–08:30 ET · 15-min bars · 6… | TESTED | REJECTED | — | — | §104 |
| ▸HTF-sweep-anchored CISD (Fractal Alignment / TTrades / ICT2023Trader, Nov 2026)EDGETAPE | Liquidity sweeps & SMC/ICT entry models | NQ · 15m→1m · 1H→5m · 4H→15m · sessions ALL … | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.129 | -0.101 | §105 |
| ▸08:00 price vs London midpoint → which London extreme NY breaks firstEDGETAPE | Session & level breaks | NQ · ES · GC · YM · London 02:00–08:00 · NY … | TESTED | REJECTED | -0.066 | -0.077 | §107 |
Every entry belongs to exactly one family, and a family is the unit a verdict attaches to. TESTED means the family shape went through the harness against a pre-registered spec. TOKEN means we have entries in it but none of them tests the shape — it counts as a gap, not as coverage. NONE means never touched. 1,794 imported strategies sit in a family we have not tested.
session-level-break · §21–§26, §43–§51, §58Opening range, initial balance, overnight range, prior-day H/L, Crabel stretch, Asia/London ranges, the pre-market range and the opening drive. 25 of our registry entries. Two laws established INSIDE this room: high-win/small-target dies on MAE geometry, and confluence has the wrong sign. Neither law says anything about the rooms below.
liquidity-sweep-smc · §53, §57, §63, §81Sweep → FVG / IFVG / breaker / CISD / order block. 15 entries, one beta survivor (gold reclaim); every fade variant loses out-of-sample. §63 added the fourth law: test the fill, not just the signal. §73b tested drive → FVG with controls: the gap scores what any limit at the same depth in the leg scores. §81 tested the first real breaker block: it adds nothing over a bare swing break and never beats a coin-flip direction.
cross-asset-confluence · §26, §33, §55, §59cUsing a second index to gate a trade in the first. The AND-gate lives here too but is filed under session-level-break because its signal is a level break. Confirmation has the WRONG sign and the mechanism is known: confirmation is a proxy for 'the complex has already moved', so the fill is worst where the signal looks strongest.
gap-behaviour · §49, §52The overnight gap as a statistic and as a trade. Both of our entries are stat-only: size predicts the fill, nothing predicts the direction, and the tradeable version is ~breakeven.
holding-period · agenda ★★★ 1 · §60Varying ONLY the exit. Tested 2026-09-12: 17 of 18 longer-hold cells fail; the one survivor holds nothing overnight (17:00 Globex close instead of 16:00 cash close). Any import that holds a position past the session close lands here, and a $2,000 trailing drawdown is the binding constraint on all of them — 44.2% of overnight gaps exceed a whole $2,000 buffer on one NQ.
calendar-seasonality · agenda ★★★ 2 · §61 (not run)Short weeks, turn of month, OPEX, roll week, day-of-week × session, half days. Orthogonal information — it does not depend on a price pattern, so it cannot fail for either of our two laws. Our two entries are TIME-OF-DAY folklore (the London fix, the 10am reversal, an hourly mean-reversion clock) and both are rejected. The CALENDAR grid — week shape, turn of month, OPEX, events — has never been run.
portfolio-construction · agenda ★★★ 3 · §62Running several rules together. Coverage is `tested` with ZERO registry rows — §62 is a study over results we already owned, not a strategy with its own expectancy. The answer was that combining our survivors COSTS size rather than buying it, and that the diversification benefit which did appear was luck (P(null <= observed drawdown) = 0.51 for the pair that matters). Almost nothing in the import lands here, because a public strategy catalogue is a list of single rules by construction.
relative-value · agenda ★★ 4Two legs, traded as a spread rather than used as a filter. One tested entry (NQ/ES spread mean reversion, rejected), which is a real test of the shape but on exactly one pair. Every 'arbitrage / hedging' import lands here, and most of them are not really spreads: 46 of 69 state no market at all and the titles are ordinary indicator strategies carrying a hedging flag. Treat the count as an upper bound on how much genuine relative-value work is in the import.
volatility-expansion · agenda ★★ 5 · §64NR7/NR4, inside days, consecutive narrow ranges, realised-vol percentile, squeeze → expansion. Tested 2026-09-12 as the one corner of the geometry our two laws do not forbid — low win rate, tight stop, very large target. 60 cells on NQ/ES/GC, all printed, nothing promoted. The claimed 20–30% win rate REPRODUCES (26–29% with a ¼-IB stop and an 8R target); the ~8R payoff does not, because an unstopped intraday position reaches 8R on 0.0–5.0% of qualifying days before any cost. An 'expanding market' label computable at 09:30 is indistinguishable from a random relabelling of the calendar (P = 0.213 on §58's screen statistic) and changes sign by instrument. The NR premise is half true: relative travel does improve on compressed days, and the stop that expresses it shrinks with the same range, which cancels it. Any import whose edge is a volatility state rather than a price pattern lands here.
order-flow · agenda ★★ 6 · §95Delta, imbalance, absorption — from the Databento order-flow file already sitting unopened in the cache. Distinct from the `volume-flow` family: OBV and a volume histogram are computed from the same OHLCV bars we already have, while this needs a different Databento product. ➜ §95 (2026-10-20): the 4-day file opened — impact real, prediction nil — and a side-convention bug fixed; a real family test needs 12–18 months of trades/tbbo (content/orderflow-plan-2026-10.md).
macro-cross-asset · agenda ★ 7 · §101Rates, DXY, oil, bonds as a REGIME LABEL rather than a confluence filter (confluence has the wrong sign). ➜ FIRST TEST 2026-10-27 (§101): the dollar (6E) at the entry minute as a label on the §57b gold reclaim — it does not sort the trades (agrees leads at 1–5 min, trails at 15; a random day's dollar tape makes spreads that size 28% of the time; no skip filter beats its shuffle). Coverage is `token`: one label on one rule. Gold is a real-rates instrument and we have still never looked at a rate.
event-driven · agenda ★ 8 · §67 (not run)FOMC / CPI / NFP as the trade rather than as a stand-down. We have an econ calendar and have only ever used it to stay out. NEVER TESTED.
statistical-extremes · agenda ★ 9 · §68 (not run)N consecutive closes, ±2σ from a moving average, distance from VWAP in σ, daily RSI extremes. Every fade we have rejected was at a LEVEL; this is a different population and 'fading loses' has not been shown here — which makes it the most valuable never-tested room on the agenda, whatever the import's counts say. ➜ FIRST TESTS 2026-10-20 (§83 AM TBR σ-band fade, §92 daily RSI(2)): both rejected as trades. ➜ §100 (2026-10-27): the vendors' percentile 'probable bands' calibrate only after dividing by ATR20 (i.e. they are ATR × a constant); fading the 20%/10% band and targeting the 50% band are both rejected (0 of 96 cells).
closing-auction · agenda ★ 10 · §69 (not run)The last 30 minutes as its own trade; MOC imbalance. Gold's post-close window carried +950 of its +2,122-point 3-year move. NEVER TESTED.
ma-trendSMA/EMA crosses, Supertrend, Ichimoku, Parabolic SAR, ADX/DMI trend filters. THE LARGEST FAMILY IN THE IMPORT BY A WIDE MARGIN, and coverage is `token`, not `tested`: our two entries are a 2026 regime expression (2×200EMA + VWAP, rejected because it expresses one year's trend) and a vendor black box (WillyAlgo). Neither is a pre-registered test of 'does a moving-average cross carry an edge on NQ/ES/GC'. Counting them as coverage would be the flattering arithmetic we tear other people apart for.
oscillator-momentumRSI / Stochastic / MACD / CCI / Williams %R / ROC used as a directional trigger. Distinct from `statistical-extremes`, which fades the same oscillators at an extreme rather than following them. NEVER TESTED — we have not run a single oscillator strategy in the whole registry, and the import is full of them.
band-channelBollinger, Keltner, Donchian. Sits between two agenda rooms — a squeeze is `volatility-expansion`, a band touch fade is `statistical-extremes` — and the dump's tags do not say which, so it keeps its own family rather than being silently assigned to one. NEVER TESTED.
vwap · §73VWAP and its bands, as a trend filter or a reversion target. Tested 2026-09-15 (§73) as the reversion target — fade the first ±2σ / ±1σ band touch back to VWAP, stop 0.5σ beyond — and it loses on all three instruments because the stop the band implies sits inside the cost. The same section measured VWAP, the session VWAP and every band as LEVELS: at first touch VWAP and its ±2σ bands are NO EDGE AT THIS LINE on every instrument. The TREND-FILTER half of the family (long above VWAP, short below) is still untested; it appears in `ema-vwap-scalp` only as half of a compound rule.
volume-flow · §73 (profile only)Volume histograms, OBV, MFI — computed from the OHLCV bars we already hold, unlike the `order-flow` family which needs a different data product. Coverage is `token` ON PURPOSE: §73 tested the volume PROFILE member (prior-day POC as a magnet — it does not beat its own reflection — and POC/VAH/VAL as levels, NO EDGE on nearly every row), but OBV, MFI and volume-oscillator rules, which is what the import's strategies in this family actually are, have never been run. Counting one profile test as coverage of the family would be the flattering arithmetic this page exists to refuse.
fib-pivot-projectionFib retracements/extensions, floor pivots, standard-deviation projections. Coverage is `token`: our one entry is filed `untestable` because it was taught without a mechanical spec, so it produced no verdict about the family. The import's versions DO carry specs, which makes this family testable in a way our own entry never was.
grid-martingaleAveraging into a losing position on a ladder, with or without doubling. NEVER TESTED — and worth saying plainly on the page: these are position-sizing schemes, not edges, and a $2,000 trailing drawdown is the exact account that a martingale is designed to blow up.
dca-rebalancingScheduled accumulation and portfolio rebalancing. Not an intraday futures shape at all. NEVER TESTED.
market-makingQuoting both sides for the spread. NEVER TESTED, and honestly out of reach: it needs a fill model we do not have and a venue relationship a retail trader does not have.
scalping-hftSub-minute holding periods. NEVER TESTED as a family. Our cost model (NQ 1.5pt round trip) would dominate the result, which is itself the finding worth publishing about it.
ai-mlAnything advertising a model. NEVER TESTED. The overfitting problem here is the one the whole EdgeTape method exists to catch, so this family is more interesting as content than as a lead.
chart-transformRe-barring the price series before signalling. NEVER TESTED — and flagged, not neutral: both transforms smooth using information that is not final until the bar closes, which is the same class of defect as §59c's sub-minute lookahead. Any test of this family needs `scripts/test-no-lookahead.py` pointed at it first.
unclassifiedNo usable type or indicator tag and no decisive title phrase. NOT A FAMILY — a holding pen, and it is excluded from the never-tested ranking for that reason: 'we have never tested the unclassified family' is not a statement about anything. An entry only leaves it by someone reading the source and writing a rule statement. Its size is a measure of the import's tagging, not of a gap in our research.
Every number traces to a script in the repository and to the master research log; the family counts and the mapping rules are generated into content/vault-census.md by scripts/vault-import.ts. Verdict colours: LEAD · BETA · WITHDRAWN · STAT ONLY · REJECTED · UNTESTABLE. Market context and research transparency — not financial advice, and not a signal service. Back to research →